Cardano: ADA keeps climbing! But what is the ADA/BTC risk?

We have spoken before about the risk level of ADA against USD, but now we are extending it to ADA/BTC as well. This way, if you are trading between BTC, you can use this metric to directly help with portfolio management. Please let me know what you think about the metric in the comments and where you see ADA headed!

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26 Comments

  1. I totally understand the calm mathematic systematic approach to investing. But at the same tome how many people sat on the sidelines thinking they were geniuses for not investing in stocks like Tesla because the risk metrics didn’t make sense or the business plan didn’t make sense? Risking a few grand means zero in comparison to potential gains if you are a little late to the party. I don’t know it’s a tough one

  2. For ADA holders – Ben’s analysis is great, but it is mathematically based, so it applies better to the asset on a long-term basis which doesn’t incorporate external factors in the real world that come about such as Shelley mainnet launch and staking rewards starting in mid-August – this is more fundamental analysis. I think I’m a bit more comfortable with risk and taking a gamble on things than Ben, so I’m holding onto all of my ADA until at least end-August and planning to hold onto most of it, if not all, if staking proves profitable. If this is wrong Ben, please criticize. Here to learn. Thanks for your great analysis and also what’s up with VET – pump and dump or real?

  3. I think staking rewards will go a long way in preventing a sell off. People are going to want to stake and continue to be rewarded over time, this will cause far more people to hold than a standard crypto.

  4. Hey if anyone could answer me this is really appreciate it, how can I make my own metrics? Like the risk one Ben has

  5. Geez Ben: You have one of the best rollouts in ADA for 2020. 32 days until staking. This is a once in a lifetime, imo, for wealth accumulation. Price is only going up and if people are relying on TA I would say be careful at trading out for short term. I forecast $20 EOY 2022 with problem free rollout. GLTA.

  6. Hey Ben can you share some info regarding the parameters that go into your risk calculations? Not asking for your secret sauce just trying to understand what factors into your assessment so I can make an informed decision on the validity of what you’re quantifying. Thanks

  7. Looking at the chart does risk always trend with price? Is it possible for risk to consolidate or decline while price increases? Also while I appreciate the buy low / sell high mentality having a hard time with the notion of your message of any buys above $.10 carries too much risk. If you buy that theory you should sell ALL ADA now since at $.13 we are at a 30% premium of the all time max value for ADA. How are fundamentals, market potential, market adoption and future strategies to capture new markets factored into your risk equation? Thanks. Love your content btw!!

    • As I said many times, I think ADA will go beyond $0.10 but that I do not want to buy it past that because of the risk-adjusted returns on it. You are aware there are other investments in this world besides ADA and crypto in general right? If your thinking is, “Well if you think ADA will go up, why not buy more?” I think AMZN will go up too. There is only a finite amount of money I have to invest.

      So I am very unsure of why you are telling me that I should sell all of my ADA. This may be your approach, but it is not mine.

    • Benjamin Cowen Sorry Ben I don’t mean to be flippant. I get that every person needs to make their own assessment with risk:reward. I’m simply using a very extreme example to make a point especially since you have thousands of followers you influence. So if the entire market were to follow your advice and not buy above $0.10 then the price will never go higher because there are no buyers. If the crypto market reaches $2T in overall marketcap (very conservative) and ADA reaches a 0.10 ADA Dominance (also very conservative given ETH ATH Dominance reached over 0.30) that will place ADA at over $6.00. I know you have expressed ADA potential to reach as high as $10 in previous vids. Anyway we both KI now there are other ways to manage risk like position size vs simply stating don’t buy any over $0.10

  8. They don’t even have a properly functioning wallet, literally days to sync, I think it’ll fall to 600sat in a couple of weeks

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